By Jackie Miller
“Sometimes in life, and always with California water, all we can do is prudently prepare for contingencies and surprises, while we wait for the future.” —Jay Lund, UC Davis
As October 1st approaches, Californians naturally wonder what the next year will bring. We speculate, we debate, we forecast. But once the water year ends, we rarely pause to ask: What did we get right? What surprised us? Looking back is just as important as looking ahead.
One year ago, in the fall of 2024, outlooks were mixed:
- NOAA’s Winter Precipitation Outlook showed “equal chances” of above- or below-normal precipitation for nearly the entire state.[i]
- The Climate Prediction Center projected a 71% chance of weak La Niña conditions, with a reminder that La Niña can influence precipitation on either side of normal.
- The Department of Water Resources anticipated hot, dry conditions and a likely La Niña—bringing both drought stress and higher flood risk from stronger storms—and urged Californians to “prepare for the extremes.”[ii]
- AccuWeather warned that atmospheric rivers could once again “drench the West Coast.”
- Seasonal models from the National Weather Service and ECMWF leaned drier from October to December.[iii]
In short: perspectives abounded, but the only consensus was uncertainty. 
In contrast, the California Annual Precipitation (CAP) forecast (released November 7, 2024) projected a near-normal water year: 90–110% of average. Against a backdrop of speculation and hype, CAP calmly called for a year that was… “normal.” (see left)
But in California water, “normal” might be the least normal forecast of all.
And now, with just weeks left in the water year, precipitation totals sit at 93% of average through August 31, 2025, according to California Water Watch (see below)—inside CAP’s forecast range for the ninth consecutive year.
Looking Ahead
With October on the horizon, a familiar refrain returns: What will the next water year hold? “For those who want a leg up in planning and a vision for the water year ahead, [CAP] is an excellent tool for that,” says Jimmy Nichols of Nichols Farms.
With a nine-year track record of accurate forecasts, CAP provides a steady, trusted perspective, giving Californians and water managers alike a clearer sense of expectation and a narrower range of possibilities as the new water year begins.
“CAP gives us the ability to know if we’re going to be in a dry year, a normal year, or an excessive year much earlier than any other tool,” says Tim Johnson, President and CEO of the California Rice Commission.
The suspense of a new water year doesn’t have to last long. By the first week of November, CAP delivers a clear signal with a fixed range, cutting through the noise and providing clarity. Sign up for CAP today and plan with confidence for the year ahead
Jackie Miller is the Manager of Data & Product Services at Weather Tools, where she combines a curiosity about weather data with a passion for storytelling. She leads the development of monthly forecast reports, using numbers and narrative to bring clarity to customers navigating complex water year decisions. You can reach her at Jackie@weathertools.org
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[i]NOAA Climate Prediction Center (2024). Precipitation Outlooks: October 2024 [Map] https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif
[ii] California Department of Water Resources. (September 26, 2024). California prepares for extreme weather swings as new water year approaches. https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/2024/Sep-24/California-Prepares-for-Extreme-Weather-Swings-as-New-Water-Year-Approaches.
[iii] ABC10. (Oct 2, 2024). The water year is over, a new one begins. What it might look like. https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/the-water-year-is-over-new-one-begins-what-it-might-look-like/103-fd46c5c4-aae0-4b42-8ced-66763f8a046.
