By Jackie Miller
Over the past several years, as headlines swung between drought and abundance, El Niño and La Niña, the California rice industry often found itself in reaction mode—navigating major decisions with limited and shifting guidance. But according to Tim Johnson, President and CEO of the California Rice Commission (CRC), the California Annual Precipitation (CAP) forecast by Weather Tools changed that.
“We were stuck using the 90-day NOAA outlooks,” Johnson said. “They were imperfect. They’re probability-based and change constantly.”
For years, the Commission had relied on those federal forecasts to inform high-stakes decisions about planted acreage, public communications, and conservation efforts. Without consistent, early-season guidance, those calls were often made later than they should have been and with more uncertainty than Johnson liked.
Early Planning, Real Results
That’s where CAP has made a difference. Developed by Weather Tools, CAP is a long-range forecast issued each November that estimates California’s total water year precipitation.
“CAP gives us the ability to know if we’re going to be in a dry year, a normal year, or an excessive year much earlier than any other tool,” Johnson said.
The ability to begin planning in November—months ahead of when the official state outlooks firm up—has helped shift the Commission from reactive to strategic.
“We are able to start thinking about public communications, conservation programs, and how we were going to budget,” he added. “We are able to do all that in November.”
A Test of Trust
Johnson said the team has now used CAP for three years and has grown more confident in its accuracy each season. But that confidence didn’t come overnight—especially when the forecast ran counter to public expectations.
One of the biggest tests came in the 2022–2023 season, when CAP predicted above-normal precipitation, even as NOAA outlooks and media headlines suggested continued drought.
“We had to trust you guys. That was tough,” Johnson said with a laugh.
When it rained, it poured. The water year precipitation ended up 43.3% above normal. But the Commission wasn’t surprised. With CAP, they had expected it, planned for it, and built their entire water year strategy around the forecast.
More Efficiency, Less Crisis Mode
“I think CAP made us much more efficient and much more effective,” Johnson said. “We knew what we were going to do for the next eight months.”
That long-range clarity let them execute initiatives without the usual scramble. It also helped them avoid being swept up in the drought-driven news cycle.
In the exceptionally wet water year 2022-23, “the media still wanted to write about the drought,” Johnson noted. “But with CAP, we didn’t have to constantly be in reaction mode. It allowed us to do other things.”
That’s operational efficiency. And that year wasn’t an exception—CAP has verified every year since its inception, building an impeccable track record.
A Broader Opportunity
While the forecast has transformed operations for the Rice Commission, Johnson sees broader value for water managers and growers throughout the state.
“There is a huge opportunity for water districts to be making some of their decisions based on CAP,” he said. “And the more clarity they have, the more clarity their growers will have.”
As for CAP’s impact on the Rice Commission, Johnson didn’t hesitate:
“It’s been a game changer.”
Jackie Miller is the Manager of Data & Product Services at Weather Tools, where she combines a curiosity about weather data with a passion for storytelling. She leads the development of monthly forecast reports, using numbers and narrative to bring clarity to customers navigating complex water year decisions. You can reach her at Jackie@weathertools.org
DISCLAIMER OF RESPONSIBILITY; Waterwrights.net strives to provide its clients with the most complete, up-to-date, and accurate information available. Nevertheless, Waterwrights.net does not serve as a guarantor of the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and specifically disclaims any and all responsibility for information
that is not accurate, up-to-date, or complete. Waterwrights.net’s clients therefore rely on the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of information from Waterwrights.net entirely at their own risk. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not represent any advertisers or third parties.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Copyright 2025 by WaterWrights.net
