By Jackie Miller
Tom Neisler, General Manager of Tehachapi-Cummings County Water District, stood before his board with a bold operations plan based on a 35% State Water Project
allocation. There was only one small problem: the actual allocation was still just 15%. But Neisler trusted a forecast from Weather Tools: the California Annual Precipitation (CAP) forecast issued the first week of November. Why? Because Weather Tools had a track record of eight straight years of accurate forecasts.
Neisler says CAP’s real value lies in its ability to help him anticipate how DWR might behave. “What matters most is predicting the allocation,” he says. “CAP helps me get there.”
As a member unit of the Kern County Water Agency (KCWA, California’s second-largest State Water Project contractor after Metropolitan Water District), Tehachapi-Cummings plays a pivotal role in water operations across the region.
Bold Plan Hits the Mark
On February 25, the Department of Water Resources raised the allocation to 35%—exactly what Tom had predicted, on the very day he told his board to expect it.
“Weather Tools made me look like a savant,” he said with a chuckle.
The board took notice, and so did the local press. Tehachapi News highlighted Neisler’s foresight and timely guidance in a front-page story on the state allocation bump.
“How did you know that?!” many wondered. Neisler never breached confidentiality, but admitted it was a little awkward to be one of 15 member unit managers in KCWA, yet clearly working from a different playbook.
The truth is, Neisler believed the allocation could go even higher. But by publicly forecasting 35%, he struck a balance—bold enough to act on, conservative enough to defend. And as the water year progressed, allocations did rise further, validating the estimates he had based on the CAP forecast.
Why Early Guidance Matters
“Without CAP, I would have given a much more conservative forecast,” Tom admits. “And that could have led to real economic pain, especially for the growers who need answers in November, not March.”
For Grimmway Farms, which plans early and depends on timely water supply guidance, being part of a water district with access to a reliable early-season forecast is a game-changer. Grimmway is often among the first to feel the effects when water availability is unclear or guidance is too late. Thanks to CAP, Tehachapi-Cummings can provide accurate guidance months earlier, and with more confidence.
From Fields to Fuel
But it’s not just growers who benefit. Since the district pumps water up the Tehachapi Mountains, their energy costs, especially for natural gas, are immense. In some years, the energy bill rivals the cost of the water itself. The CAP forecast helped Neisler and his team predict energy usage and costs well in advance, helping the district plan ahead and reduce costs.
Progress Through Partnership
“When it comes to this product, I couldn’t be more impressed or happier. We’re moving forward with CAP next year and beyond.”
Neisler reflected on the frustration of seeing modest allocations even in a year with full reservoirs and saturated soils. “It’s not just policy—it’s personal,” he says, noting how these circumstances ripple through his own community, affecting friends and neighbors.
Neisler wants to be part of the solution.
He sees Weather Tools as more than a provider—he considers them a partner. And that partnership is growing. Tehachapi-Cummings has licensed property for Weather Tools to install a permanent weather station, providing additional data to advance forecasting science and improve water management tools for the benefit of Neisler’s community and beyond.
Jackie Miller is the Manager of Data & Product Services at Weather Tools, where she
combines a curiosity about weather data with a passion for storytelling. She leads the development of monthly forecast reports, using numbers and narrative to bring clarity to customers navigating complex water year decisions. You can reach her at Jackie@weathertools.org
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