By Jackie Miller
Few people track the weather more closely than farmers and pilots. Okay, and reservoir operators. Randy Fiorini has been all three. As a third-generation grower, second-generation licensed pilot, water district director, policy leader, and stakeholder representative, Fiorini’s career has been remarkably diverse. But one thing is constant: his eyes have always been fixed on California’s weather.
“I have firsthand experience with reservoir operations, farming, and aviation—and all three are impacted by weather. The more knowledge we have about what’s coming, the better decisions we can make,” he says.
The seasonal forecast options, however, were unreliable. “They were all very Farmer’s Almanac-like,” he says. “They lacked statistical rigor—there was just no solid data.” What choice did he have but to be dismissive of long-range forecasting? “I’ve always said anything beyond five days is just a guess.”
So when Fiorini was introduced to Weather Tools’ seasonal forecasts for water year precipitation (CAP) and reservoir inflow (CRAFT), he was intrigued but unconvinced. “I’m a skeptic by nature.”
Decades of Perspective
Fiorini Ranch in Merced County was founded by Fiorini’s grandparents in 1909. What began with peaches and wine grapes has evolved along with California’s agricultural landscape to today’s mix of peaches, almonds, walnuts and citrus. “We’ve had to adjust to market demands,” Fiorini says, “and weather.”
As a child, Fiorini accompanied his flying father as he provided rides to the California legislators during the construction of the State Water Project, conceived to capture California’s winter season precipitation to provide flood control and a year-round water supply to California residents and farms. Fiorini has proudly carried on this family tradition.
“The water storage and delivery systems in California are world class and during my fifty-plus years of flying I have never grown weary of introducing people to parts of the system from the air.”
In 1975, Fiorini stepped into a leadership role on the ranch. Over the decades that followed, he served four terms on the Turlock Irrigation District board, led both the Association of California Water Agencies and the California Farm Water Coalition, and was appointed by Governor Schwarzenegger in 2010 to the newly formed Delta Stewardship Council.
In every role, the need for accurate forecasting—and the frustration with its limits—was front and center. “We’d get updates, models, projections,” he recalls of his time on the TID board. “But they weren’t always reliable, and we had to make big decisions with partial information.”
The Turning Point
Fiorini hadn’t seen Rob Doornbos, Weather Tools owner and meteorologist, in about twenty-five years—not since Doornbos’ wedding to Kelly Tennis, who Fiorini had mentored while serving on the California Farm Water Coalition Board. But at a recent ACWA event, Fiorini sat down with the Weather Tools team and took a closer look at their suite of products. That conversation marked a turning point.
“The annual precipitation forecast had a seven-year track record at that time,” Fiorini says. “The accuracy… there’s no arguing it. Whatever magic Rob applies, it works,” he chuckles.
Of course, it isn’t magic – it’s science. The CAP (California Annual Precipitation) forecast Fiorini refers to uses a novel statistical approach that has been correct year after year, giving water managers and growers months of lead time that traditional models cannot provide.
Over time, Fiorini moved from skeptic to supporter. “I told Rob and the team, ‘this is something California water needs.’ If I can help, I will.”
Putting the Forecasts to Work
True to his word, Fiorini didn’t just endorse the forecast, he helped spread the word. After seeing the accuracy of Weather Tools’ CAP forecast, which provides a water year precipitation outlook each November, Fiorini recommended it to his irrigation district. “It was just too compelling to ignore,” he said.
When Fiorini learned that Weather Tools also provides a Daily Weather forecast, tailored to his farming region, he subscribed right away. “This time of year, wind is everything,” he says. “For pesticide planning and herbicide applications, accuracy matters. And come winter, with our citrus crop, frost risk is huge. That’s when the real-time alerts will be critical. The daily forecast gives us that anticipatory edge. It’s not replacing our system – it’s enhancing it.”
Fiorini adds, “In my role at the Delta Stewardship Council, I worked with some of the top scientists in the country. To now be part of what Weather Tools is doing – I’m just honored to be associated with this kind of science. Even more so because it impacts my irrigation district and my farming operation.”
A New Frontier for Water Management
As someone deeply familiar with the operational challenges of water storage and release, Fiorini sees tremendous value in CRAFT for reservoir operators, too. CRAFT, the California Reservoir Annual Forecast Tool, provides an inflow forecast for 18 major reservoirs. Unlike traditional models, the CRAFT forecast is issued once, early in the water year, and remains fixed. That stability allows reservoir operators to make confident planning decisions months in advance, without chasing a moving target.
At Turlock Irrigation District, Fiorini recalls the constraints of managing California’s fifth-largest reservoir. “Our downstream release capacity was limited. Sometimes we’d have to start making space in January just in case. But imagine if we had a November 1st forecast we could trust! We could’ve optimized storage and saved water that would’ve otherwise been released unnecessarily.”
And while the Army Corps of Engineers sets strict flood control rules, Fiorini believes a validated long-range forecast could eventually help change that. “It would take time, but it’s possible. Especially if forecasts are backed by consistent accuracy.”
Forecasting Hope
While Fiorini may have started out a skeptic, he’s now one of Weather Tools’ most thoughtful advocates. He sees the long-range and daily forecasts not just as curiosities, but as essential tools for decision-making.
Fiorini has been a part of countless strategy meetings – on farm boards, irrigation districts, and statewide commissions – and he knows the value of an accurate forecast.
“Whether you’re operating a ranch, running a water district, or planning at the state level, if you can base your decisions on sound information ahead of time, you’re not guessing. You’re leading.”
Jackie Miller is the Manager of Data & Product Services at Weather Tools, where she combines a curiosity about weather data with a passion for storytelling. She leads the development of monthly forecast reports, using numbers and narrative to bring clarity to customers navigating complex water year decisions. You can reach her at Jackie@weathertools.org
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